Election Night Preview...

An Honest Look at McCain's chances...

Looking at most polls (basically the electoral maps at RCP and Slate, I know no bastion of conservatism), I have some thought's on what to look for, so this is a little amateur punditry.

McCain has made quite a surge in this last week in the popular vote, most polls have either Obama or McCain leading by 2 points either way.

While I question some of the polling numbers (like how the hell can Arizona be a swing state, seriously?), the Electoral Map hold this simple truth. The three biggest states left are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20). McCain has been surging in all 3 states, and looks primed to take Florida and Ohio. However, it looks extremly difficult for McCain to win the 270 electoral votes without all three. If he does however, it would appear that this could be part of a national trend where McCain would likley pick up all of the "toss up" states and can easily get to 270. If McCain misses any of these states, he's going to have to out-perform the polls greatly in a lot of states to get there.

My bottom line is this. If McCain doesn't get all three of the states I identified above, he's likley to lose. However, if McCain does, look out, Obama's in a lot of trouble as it appears McCain would also win the remaining "toss up" states (in most of which he currently enjoys slight leads).

A more personal note...

No matter who's elected, I promise to offer the respect the office of President affords to whoever holds it. This means, no Alec-Balwdin-crybaby "I'm moving to Canada stuff." This means no Michael Moore style electoral maps depecting half the country as "commie-land." While I am likley to have many disagreements with an Obama administration, and I won't be silent about them (as long as the 1st amendment applies to the internet), I will still promise to afford him the basic respect that President Bush has been denied for the last 8 years by the angry left. I promise I won't refer to Obama as retarded, or ignorant, or any of the other absolutly disgusting things that have been said and believed acceptable about President Bush. No matter what happens I hope the left looks at the way they've behaved the last 8 years with shame.

Should Obama win the election, I hope we as conservatives don't have to look at how we acted during the Obama administration with the same sense of shame. It's very tempting to take the horrible level of the left's rhetoric in revenge. However, I urge conservatives to think about the way they attack Obama should he be elected. And the people in the middle that aren't affilated will be able to compare the way we act out of power with the way they did, and that message will pay off extrodinairaly when we meet at the ballot box two and four years from now.

Final Thoughts...

I know this sounds like I'm resigned to defeat, I assure you I'm not. I still believe McCain has a very real shot to win in the scenario I laid out above. But no matter what happens, let's hope for the best, and that starts by respecting the Presidency for the great office that it is...