AAL: 2
The one path to victory I saw for McCain closed very quickly around 8CT. After seeing PA fall to Obama, shortly followed by OH it became clear that McCain did not do enough to defeat Obama in this election.
So congragtualtions to the President-elect. I believe the office itself is deserving of respect regardless of who's holding it. In yesterday's post I promised to offer President-elect Obama that respect, which many on the left have failed to give Presdient Bush.
This means
1) I am not going to cry and move to Canada like that WLB (cu blogword, whiny little bitch) Alec Baldwin (though Canada did elect their "conservative party" to power in their election).
2) I am not going to call Obama a retard or monkeyman (these being among the tamer insults directed at President Bush)
3) I am not going to write a play or movie about the assissnation of the sitting president.
4) I am not going to draw devisive electoral maps saying the blue states aren't in my country (yes I'm talking about that anti-christian bigot Michael Moore's "Jesusland" map).
While I obviously will oppose many of the policies Presdient Elect Obama has proposed, he is still the leader of the country I love so dearly. And yes, Mrs. Obama, it is possible to be proud of your country whoever is leading it. As an opponent of your husband I believe that, I'm sorry you only believe it when you're winning.
That's a tanget, however I have more promises to make in support of conservatism..,
1) I am going to criticize President Obama any time a meausre passes that hurts the american people, and I will try to quantify the damage as plain as possible. As it turns out it is possible to be patriotic and criticize the President. I hope that doesn't automatically make me racist (however if Obama's house surrogates are any indication, it probably does...)
2) While I will continue to respect the office of President, the office of SCUM Journalism is still my bitch (I'm looking at you Olbeljerk-off).
Speaking of which all is not lost...
As of this writing the Dems have only flipped about 12 seats in the house, and 5 in the senate (we may wait a while for the MN result) far less than what they were expecting, the popular vote for president also is within about 4 points, though the electoral college is looking like a landslide.
Speaking of Minnesota....
We must be the most schizophrenic electorate in the country. Obama carries the state handly, carries the country pretty handly for that matter. In every other state it seems Obama's coattails were alive and well. Yet Ultra-Con Rep. Bachman, John Kline, and Eric Paulson all find their way to victory in house races (stifling Dem hopes to pick up 30 seats), Coleman and Franken are going to the wire, and I understand there is a margin which will trigger an automatic recount. So we can elect conservative house members, liberal presidents, it's going to come down to a couple hundred votes between a comedy writer and a senator/former mayor.
But all minnesotans seem to agree on higher sales and property taxes, given where the constitiutional amendment and most school board initiatives landed...
I don't get it, but what can I say, Minnesota is home.
Future of conservatism...
And lastly I want to point out before Rush does on his radio show later today, that it's not like conservatism got beat today. The RNC has had this push to become moderate, to try and pick off democrats by becoming more like them. And that's how we ended up with a rather liberal nominee like John McCain. McCain did the consevative base one favor by selecting Gov. Palin. I hope the RNC took notice that she's the only reason there was any energy about Sen. McCain in the final 2 months of his campaign. And as Charles Krauthammer pointed out, all those people that thought a moderate nominee was politically smart ended up endorsing Obama anyway once it seems an Obama victory is unlikley. The conservative rank and file should be outraged that that is what passes for leadership in the Republican party. But the RNC's culpability in this defeat is a topic for another post...
Point being the stakes are high because recovery is possible, look at 1980 and 1994, both attainable goals if the RNC gets its act together...
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05 November 2008
04 November 2008
Election Night Preview...
An Honest Look at McCain's chances...
Looking at most polls (basically the electoral maps at RCP and Slate, I know no bastion of conservatism), I have some thought's on what to look for, so this is a little amateur punditry.
McCain has made quite a surge in this last week in the popular vote, most polls have either Obama or McCain leading by 2 points either way.
While I question some of the polling numbers (like how the hell can Arizona be a swing state, seriously?), the Electoral Map hold this simple truth. The three biggest states left are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20). McCain has been surging in all 3 states, and looks primed to take Florida and Ohio. However, it looks extremly difficult for McCain to win the 270 electoral votes without all three. If he does however, it would appear that this could be part of a national trend where McCain would likley pick up all of the "toss up" states and can easily get to 270. If McCain misses any of these states, he's going to have to out-perform the polls greatly in a lot of states to get there.
My bottom line is this. If McCain doesn't get all three of the states I identified above, he's likley to lose. However, if McCain does, look out, Obama's in a lot of trouble as it appears McCain would also win the remaining "toss up" states (in most of which he currently enjoys slight leads).
A more personal note...
No matter who's elected, I promise to offer the respect the office of President affords to whoever holds it. This means, no Alec-Balwdin-crybaby "I'm moving to Canada stuff." This means no Michael Moore style electoral maps depecting half the country as "commie-land." While I am likley to have many disagreements with an Obama administration, and I won't be silent about them (as long as the 1st amendment applies to the internet), I will still promise to afford him the basic respect that President Bush has been denied for the last 8 years by the angry left. I promise I won't refer to Obama as retarded, or ignorant, or any of the other absolutly disgusting things that have been said and believed acceptable about President Bush. No matter what happens I hope the left looks at the way they've behaved the last 8 years with shame.
Should Obama win the election, I hope we as conservatives don't have to look at how we acted during the Obama administration with the same sense of shame. It's very tempting to take the horrible level of the left's rhetoric in revenge. However, I urge conservatives to think about the way they attack Obama should he be elected. And the people in the middle that aren't affilated will be able to compare the way we act out of power with the way they did, and that message will pay off extrodinairaly when we meet at the ballot box two and four years from now.
Final Thoughts...
I know this sounds like I'm resigned to defeat, I assure you I'm not. I still believe McCain has a very real shot to win in the scenario I laid out above. But no matter what happens, let's hope for the best, and that starts by respecting the Presidency for the great office that it is...
Looking at most polls (basically the electoral maps at RCP and Slate, I know no bastion of conservatism), I have some thought's on what to look for, so this is a little amateur punditry.
McCain has made quite a surge in this last week in the popular vote, most polls have either Obama or McCain leading by 2 points either way.
While I question some of the polling numbers (like how the hell can Arizona be a swing state, seriously?), the Electoral Map hold this simple truth. The three biggest states left are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20). McCain has been surging in all 3 states, and looks primed to take Florida and Ohio. However, it looks extremly difficult for McCain to win the 270 electoral votes without all three. If he does however, it would appear that this could be part of a national trend where McCain would likley pick up all of the "toss up" states and can easily get to 270. If McCain misses any of these states, he's going to have to out-perform the polls greatly in a lot of states to get there.
My bottom line is this. If McCain doesn't get all three of the states I identified above, he's likley to lose. However, if McCain does, look out, Obama's in a lot of trouble as it appears McCain would also win the remaining "toss up" states (in most of which he currently enjoys slight leads).
A more personal note...
No matter who's elected, I promise to offer the respect the office of President affords to whoever holds it. This means, no Alec-Balwdin-crybaby "I'm moving to Canada stuff." This means no Michael Moore style electoral maps depecting half the country as "commie-land." While I am likley to have many disagreements with an Obama administration, and I won't be silent about them (as long as the 1st amendment applies to the internet), I will still promise to afford him the basic respect that President Bush has been denied for the last 8 years by the angry left. I promise I won't refer to Obama as retarded, or ignorant, or any of the other absolutly disgusting things that have been said and believed acceptable about President Bush. No matter what happens I hope the left looks at the way they've behaved the last 8 years with shame.
Should Obama win the election, I hope we as conservatives don't have to look at how we acted during the Obama administration with the same sense of shame. It's very tempting to take the horrible level of the left's rhetoric in revenge. However, I urge conservatives to think about the way they attack Obama should he be elected. And the people in the middle that aren't affilated will be able to compare the way we act out of power with the way they did, and that message will pay off extrodinairaly when we meet at the ballot box two and four years from now.
Final Thoughts...
I know this sounds like I'm resigned to defeat, I assure you I'm not. I still believe McCain has a very real shot to win in the scenario I laid out above. But no matter what happens, let's hope for the best, and that starts by respecting the Presidency for the great office that it is...
03 November 2008
My closing argument against Barack Obama...
I know what most conservatives think of the reasons Obama supporters have. I think most think that they're simplistic and ill-informed. In part that's true, but I choose to give voters a little more credit either way. Of the reasons for supporting Obama, These are the two that I'll choose to dignify.
1) "Punish" the incumbent presidency
2) "Punish" the rich in tough times
If you fall in this category I want you to consider this piece from The Wall Street Journal last September.
If you don't read it, they key points are.
1) While the rich are making more money, they are paying even more in their share of the total taxes the IRS collects (in a sense still "soaking the rich" even with lower rates).
2) When taxes get cut across the board the goverment still takes in more money, just a smaller share of the overall larger GDP.
I've heard it eloquently put that the choice between McCain and Obama is the difference between trickle down economics, and trickle-up poverty. This about it, don't automatically assume the "rich can afford it." The truth is while the "rich can afford it" if profits get cut into that easily could mean one less job offered (and one less taxpayer). If dollars get taxed to a point where it's not worth the risk to expand, jobs will be created slower over and over again.
This is why this phenomenon of cutting taxes across the board grows the economy (and also expands the governments revenues as well!). And yes while it is true that the rich will get richer, the poor will as well. Whereas if we get into this 12-year-old-girl jealousy of hurting those just because we hate that they have more than us, will ultimatly lead to more jobs overseas, and more people looking for a welfare system they will soon bankrupt if we chase away the taxpayers at the top.
My Point is this, "spread the wealth" is a romantic notion, but does unfairly punish the job creators an economy needs. It's a romantic notion that if you're below the OWL you may not have to worry. However, that now may need to be redefined as low as $150K/yr (which would include, yes, "Joe the Plumber"). However the OWL is defined should Obama be elected, we may soon find our nation in a situation where the poor majority will vote to abuse a rich minority. How long before they look at losing 60% of their money and find a country where the labor is cheap and the taxes far friendlier. Europe is starting to get away from such policies at a time we seem to be heading there.
If you really think about "spread the wealth" it is a pretty childish thought, one you would have before you dad has to point out that "life isn't fair." When you're alone in the booth, don't fall into the jealousy trap, don't vote for the politics of rich versus poor. Vote for the thing that does all americans good, even those that don't "seem to need it," cause maybe someone needs the job that isn't there, because the goverment took it for themselves.
Anyway if you are thinking about voting for Obama because you think he's better on the economy I hope I've given you reason to re-think that, if you have other reasons, I don't think I can help you...
1) "Punish" the incumbent presidency
2) "Punish" the rich in tough times
If you fall in this category I want you to consider this piece from The Wall Street Journal last September.
If you don't read it, they key points are.
1) While the rich are making more money, they are paying even more in their share of the total taxes the IRS collects (in a sense still "soaking the rich" even with lower rates).
2) When taxes get cut across the board the goverment still takes in more money, just a smaller share of the overall larger GDP.
I've heard it eloquently put that the choice between McCain and Obama is the difference between trickle down economics, and trickle-up poverty. This about it, don't automatically assume the "rich can afford it." The truth is while the "rich can afford it" if profits get cut into that easily could mean one less job offered (and one less taxpayer). If dollars get taxed to a point where it's not worth the risk to expand, jobs will be created slower over and over again.
This is why this phenomenon of cutting taxes across the board grows the economy (and also expands the governments revenues as well!). And yes while it is true that the rich will get richer, the poor will as well. Whereas if we get into this 12-year-old-girl jealousy of hurting those just because we hate that they have more than us, will ultimatly lead to more jobs overseas, and more people looking for a welfare system they will soon bankrupt if we chase away the taxpayers at the top.
My Point is this, "spread the wealth" is a romantic notion, but does unfairly punish the job creators an economy needs. It's a romantic notion that if you're below the OWL you may not have to worry. However, that now may need to be redefined as low as $150K/yr (which would include, yes, "Joe the Plumber"). However the OWL is defined should Obama be elected, we may soon find our nation in a situation where the poor majority will vote to abuse a rich minority. How long before they look at losing 60% of their money and find a country where the labor is cheap and the taxes far friendlier. Europe is starting to get away from such policies at a time we seem to be heading there.
If you really think about "spread the wealth" it is a pretty childish thought, one you would have before you dad has to point out that "life isn't fair." When you're alone in the booth, don't fall into the jealousy trap, don't vote for the politics of rich versus poor. Vote for the thing that does all americans good, even those that don't "seem to need it," cause maybe someone needs the job that isn't there, because the goverment took it for themselves.
Anyway if you are thinking about voting for Obama because you think he's better on the economy I hope I've given you reason to re-think that, if you have other reasons, I don't think I can help you...
02 November 2008
CU Voter Guide (Long Awaited I'm sure)
AAL1: People I'm (more or less) happy to endorse
Presdient and Vice President:
John McCain and Sarah Palin
It has taken me a long time to get on board this ticket as a conservative. If you thought the St. Paul Pioneer Press' endorsement of George W. Bush in 2004 was backhanded, you haven't seen anything yet. Make no mistake, whoever wins the White House is no friend of conservatism. Both candidates have weaknesses on the first amendment (though Obama has been far bolder about that), while Obama and Biden have tried to paint McCain as Bush III the fact is McCain sold President Bush out weaking his tax cuts in 2003, and selling him out on his judicial nominations for no logical reason other than to play politics by appearing not to play partisainship.
While I am unabashedly close to being a neo-con, one might assume that maybe it was Sarah Palin's choice that made the difference. While I agree with her on almost everything, and if she were to use the constitutional power afforded the vice president, that Sen. Biden is just plain ignorant on, to preside over the Senate I would love to see the look on Sen. "Dirty" Harry Reid's face. I understand her power is very limited unless something should happen to John McCain. However, I think that possibilty has been grossly overplayed.
At the end of the day McCain is right one conservative-friendly issue and none of the other candidates are. McCain understands the challenge of defending this country. A couple years ago, when I wasn't pleased with the primary candidates in both parties that were emerging, I decided I should be a single issue voter, that I was going to vote for whichever candidate is willing to elminate most of America's enemies. McCain gets that the saftey of every american depends on it, Obama wants to negotate with those that are willing to outright lie to us. Furthermore, McCain gets that Obama's redistributive policies are dangerous for the economy and therefore dangerous to our security. At the end of the day, the decision is clear...
Minnesota Senate:
Norm Coleman
While many area conservatives lump Sen. Coleman as a typical RINO (Republican in Name Only, not an original CU blogword) like Rep. Jim Ramstad or Gov. Tim Pawlenty, I give Coleman a pass on his more liberal votes because 1) He has been one of President Bush's strongest supporters on the war on terror. 2) He has been one of President Bush's strongest suppoters on judges (more than McCain), 3) He has been one of President Bush's strongest supporters on taxes.
I did give Dean Barkley some serious consideration, but the fact is for a so-called "political outsider" he gave a very political "I'm not so sure how I would've voted on the bailout" type-answer. If he stood up for the bailout that none of the voters wanted, and both Coleman and Franken support I probably would've gone his way.
I think most Senators now have some remorse that they didn't listen to the american people on that bill, I'm going to stick with Sen. Coleman.
House of Represenatives Minnesota 5th District:
Barb Davis White
I know she has absolutly no shot. It is rare in Minneapolis to find people that see Obama and Ellison's redistributive policies and dangerous for the economy. It's rare to see candidates in Minneapolis that believe in life. In fact most are mocked as being uniformed, as if it takes some great intellectual power to defend the pro-choice argument. White will probably lose 2-1 or so, but she has my support.
Other Area Races (that I won't be voting in).
House of Representatives Minnesota 3rd District: Erik Paulson,
Make No Mistake Madia is another "Tax the rich until they can't hire the poor" liberal.
House of Representatives Minnesota 6th District: Michelle Bachman,
She was one of the very first people to favor domestic drilling, she has been a strong supporter of the president, and she got a bum-rap from Chris Mad-thews for simply suggesting that the Media should do their job and dig into what Obama's policies are (and damn the national GOP for bailing on her, essectially siding with Mad-thews, I hope they burn in hell for that).
Presdient and Vice President:
John McCain and Sarah Palin
It has taken me a long time to get on board this ticket as a conservative. If you thought the St. Paul Pioneer Press' endorsement of George W. Bush in 2004 was backhanded, you haven't seen anything yet. Make no mistake, whoever wins the White House is no friend of conservatism. Both candidates have weaknesses on the first amendment (though Obama has been far bolder about that), while Obama and Biden have tried to paint McCain as Bush III the fact is McCain sold President Bush out weaking his tax cuts in 2003, and selling him out on his judicial nominations for no logical reason other than to play politics by appearing not to play partisainship.
While I am unabashedly close to being a neo-con, one might assume that maybe it was Sarah Palin's choice that made the difference. While I agree with her on almost everything, and if she were to use the constitutional power afforded the vice president, that Sen. Biden is just plain ignorant on, to preside over the Senate I would love to see the look on Sen. "Dirty" Harry Reid's face. I understand her power is very limited unless something should happen to John McCain. However, I think that possibilty has been grossly overplayed.
At the end of the day McCain is right one conservative-friendly issue and none of the other candidates are. McCain understands the challenge of defending this country. A couple years ago, when I wasn't pleased with the primary candidates in both parties that were emerging, I decided I should be a single issue voter, that I was going to vote for whichever candidate is willing to elminate most of America's enemies. McCain gets that the saftey of every american depends on it, Obama wants to negotate with those that are willing to outright lie to us. Furthermore, McCain gets that Obama's redistributive policies are dangerous for the economy and therefore dangerous to our security. At the end of the day, the decision is clear...
Minnesota Senate:
Norm Coleman
While many area conservatives lump Sen. Coleman as a typical RINO (Republican in Name Only, not an original CU blogword) like Rep. Jim Ramstad or Gov. Tim Pawlenty, I give Coleman a pass on his more liberal votes because 1) He has been one of President Bush's strongest supporters on the war on terror. 2) He has been one of President Bush's strongest suppoters on judges (more than McCain), 3) He has been one of President Bush's strongest supporters on taxes.
I did give Dean Barkley some serious consideration, but the fact is for a so-called "political outsider" he gave a very political "I'm not so sure how I would've voted on the bailout" type-answer. If he stood up for the bailout that none of the voters wanted, and both Coleman and Franken support I probably would've gone his way.
I think most Senators now have some remorse that they didn't listen to the american people on that bill, I'm going to stick with Sen. Coleman.
House of Represenatives Minnesota 5th District:
Barb Davis White
I know she has absolutly no shot. It is rare in Minneapolis to find people that see Obama and Ellison's redistributive policies and dangerous for the economy. It's rare to see candidates in Minneapolis that believe in life. In fact most are mocked as being uniformed, as if it takes some great intellectual power to defend the pro-choice argument. White will probably lose 2-1 or so, but she has my support.
Other Area Races (that I won't be voting in).
House of Representatives Minnesota 3rd District: Erik Paulson,
Make No Mistake Madia is another "Tax the rich until they can't hire the poor" liberal.
House of Representatives Minnesota 6th District: Michelle Bachman,
She was one of the very first people to favor domestic drilling, she has been a strong supporter of the president, and she got a bum-rap from Chris Mad-thews for simply suggesting that the Media should do their job and dig into what Obama's policies are (and damn the national GOP for bailing on her, essectially siding with Mad-thews, I hope they burn in hell for that).
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